In an Assembly election, which will next take place in May 2011, Labour would get 35% of the votes (it got 32% in the 2007 election), Plaid Cymru 27% (22%), Conservatives 16% (22%), Liberal Democrats 12% (15%), Green 4% (-), UKIP 1% (8%) and Others 5% (-).
I can only conclude that perverse incentives work, and that bribing the Welsh to remain unemployed is paying benefits for Labour.
Cunts.
8 comments:
Seriously, I'm all for Plaid getting in and setting about making Wales independent.
God, it would be fascinating to watch them try and support themselves with the sum total of fuck-all industry they have remaining.
I did some back-of-the-mars-wrapper calcs and reckon it would cost every morlock of working age about 10 grand to equal the spend from central government.
Inbred Sheep Shaggers. With a stupid and irrelevant language that most of them don't know. Loved the sign the council put up, where the "Welsh" part actually said "No one available at the moment, just fax the English to us" or similar.
The Penguin
What was beautiful about the "Not available" event was the hypocrisy of the translation department for ONLY replying in Welsh and not bilingually. Fascists.
Incidentally, strictly speaking I am Welsh as all my dad's side are and that is where I grew up(my mum's side is scouse; I've got it all going for me). So I'm a bit of a closet-case self-loather, but the attitude of them just really grips my shit.
The place has some nice hills....and fuck-all else. And I can testify from a previous military incarnation that the weather in said hills is almost always utterly abominable.
I've also worked in one of the jap electronics companies in S.Wales who came here when labour/rent was cheap. Then the locals all got ideas above their station. Rent went up, as did wage expectations and, shockingly, the companies are all fucking off to the Czech republic/Poland/somewhere cheap and eastern European.
And as for Cardiff, fuck me. A more deluded place I have never seen. That is not a Capital city, it is not a Paris/Rome/London, it's a vaguely developed dockyard filled with vacant apartment blocks built for a middle class which doesn't exist.
The majority of people who make a living off the dole rarely vote. However, the people who are employed by the government to look after these scroungers most certainly do. Now why would these guardian reading non-jobbers bite the hand that feeds them?
The poor are a goldmine.
The thing you have to bear in mind with these Beaufort polls is that they ALWAYS give Labour and Plaid a higher rate and the Tories a lower rate than is actually the case when it comes to going to the polls.
Basically, Welsh polling isn't anywhere near being as accurate as UK polling.
Ignoring the polls and looking at the actual results from 2007 (Assembly) and 2008 (locals) it's pretty clear that the Labour vote is in freefall, the Plaid vote is up, the Tory vote is up and the Lib Dem vote is wobbling.
The next real results will of course be the Euros this year. The overall share of the vote should reflect the 2007-2008 trend.
A reasonable forecast for the next general election would be:
Labour 21-25 seats (-8 to -4)
Tory 8-10 seats (+5 to +7)
Plaid 4-5 seats (+1 to +2)
Lib Dem 2-3 seats (-2 to -1)
Indy 1 seat (=)
PS the unemployment rate may be relatively high in Wales, but we're still only talking about under 100,000 people out of a total population of 3 millions.
I'm at a human rights conference in South Wales.At least this time I'm not being fucked over by North Walians.There is a distinct and subtle difference.
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