Cloud computing means fewer and larger storage buyers. The server industry has already savagely consolidated. The storage industry has yet to do so. Judged from a server industry point of view the storage industry is ridiculously over-supplied.
I'm not sure I agree with the idea that a market can be over-supplied. Normal market economics would wipe out anyone who wasn't delivering something worth buying. But consolidation of most IT into a bunch of clouds is not a very good thing, in my book. In the same way that I opposed my clients migrating to SAP or BaaN from their bespoke systems (to no avail, it must be said!) I oppose the cloud model. It will inevitably provide some advantages (mostly around costs) but will also stifle the ability to innovate.
Fewer buyers of storage who buy in larger numbers will encourage storage industry consolidation. Count the number of backup software suppliers - there are far too many. Every customer who moves over to the cloud will stop buying data centre storage hardware and software. They won't purchase arrays to store the data they don't hold any more, or business continuity and disaster recovery software to shift to backup data centres they no longer have, backup software, backup reporting software, security software for files they no longer need to protect, replication software for the data they no longer need to replicate ... you get the picture.
It's going to slaughter a lot of IT business. And that's fair enough, but as usual in the IT industry, I see a lot of people rushing to "adopt the latest paradigm shift" without thinking through the consequences.
My prediction is that the cloud will look like hell on earth for the small contractor at first. But once businesses realise how little control they have over their IT, there will be a surge in demand for smaller, nimbler providers to give them the systems that help add business value.
I really wish IT wasn't under the control of the bean counters.
2 comments:
Couldn't agree more, mate, esepecially with the last sentence.
Cloud computing will be all very well until they think you haven't paid your bill, or something.
Then - good luck getting your data back in a timely manner.
I won't be bothering.
Check out also, the number of companies now wishing they had not outsourced strategic bits of their IT.
The whole industry goes through this every few years, changing from centralised computing power to spread out computing power and back again.
I'm keeping hold of my local computing power, thanks!
It's entirely possible to get the benefit of the cloud by syncing your data all over the place, without being stuck if the cloud goes down. Which it inevitably will.
Z.
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